Mambagigi
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 74
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
82%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 2.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-09-17 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-09-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 11/06/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 08/07/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 03/09/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 17/09/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 28/02/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 01/06/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 25% | -0.66 |