5

Practical Rachel

6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 77

Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength52%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Finger Lakes 14/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 61 · 5f110y Fas 124 · below its mark14/10/2025 · OR 61 par14/10C8OR 61C8 @ Finger Lakes 28/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 66 · 6f 122 · below its mark28/10/2025 · OR 66 parC8 @ Finger Lakes 10/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 67 · 5f110y 122 · below its mark10/11/2025 · OR 67 par10/11C8OR 67C8 @ Finger Lakes 19/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 67 · 6f 122 · beat its mark19/11/2025 · OR 67 parC8 @ Finger Lakes 03/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 66 · 5f110y 122 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 66 par3/06C8OR 66C8 @ Finger Lakes 08/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 64 · 5f110y Fas 122 · below its mark08/07/2026 · OR 64 parC8 @ Finger Lakes 21/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 66 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark21/07/2026 · OR 66 par21/07C8OR 66C8 @ Finger Lakes 31/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 65 · 5f110y Gd 122 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 65 parC7 @ Finger Lakes 16/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 66 · 6f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/09/2026 · OR 66 par16/09C7OR 66projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Finger Lakes?5th4th+1
2026-08-31Finger Lakes?1st1st0
2026-07-21Finger Lakes?3rd3rd0
2026-07-08Finger Lakes?3rd3rd0
2026-06-03Finger Lakes?5th5th0
2025-11-19Finger Lakes?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/1019/1121/0716/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength85%

Delivery trend -3.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/10/20254th33/10%57%+0.57
28/10/20257th16/116%25%+0.09
10/11/20255th33/10%56%+0.56
19/11/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
03/06/20265th66/10%50%+0.50
08/07/20263rd8/158%50%-0.08
21/07/20263rd15/261%67%+0.06
31/08/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
16/09/20265th20/10%50%+0.50