7
Crystal
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 36
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength33%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 25/05/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 15/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 03/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 89% | +0.31 |
| 12/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 25/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |