Green Cape

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 93

Goodwood · Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Classified Stakes · 1m 1f 197y

#4

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C1.6

Today: 3

Class gap: +1.4

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-11	Ascot	2	8th	7th	+1	3.2
2026-06-16	Royal Ascot	2	16th	15th	+1	1.0
2026-01-16	Meydan	?	9th	9th	0	1.0
2025-07-24	Compiegne	?	4th	1st	+2	8.6
2025-06-19	ParisLongchamp	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2025-05-25	ParisLongchamp	?	5th	5th	0	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%

▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price

Trend▬

Strength67%

Delivery trend +1.9% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 4.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/11/2024	4th	11/2	71%	40%	-0.31
30/03/2025	6th	9/2	76%	50%	-0.26
04/05/2025	3rd	8/1	58%	86%	+0.28
25/05/2025	5th	10/3	82%	69%	-0.13
19/06/2025	1st	10/3	82%	100%	+0.18
24/07/2025	4th	17/2	55%	57%	+0.02
16/01/2026	9th	9/1	53%	27%	-0.25
16/06/2026	16th	50/1	0%	0%	0.00
11/07/2026	8th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00