Nesthorn
4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 92
Goodwood · Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Classified Stakes · 1m 1f 197y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | York | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 2 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ascot | 2 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-02 | Bahrain | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Bahrain | 1 | 7th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 4. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 19/12/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 02/01/2026 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 30/01/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 02/04/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 19/06/2026 | 7th | 100/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 01/08/2026 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 06/09/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |