IvyArcIvyArc
7

Darkness

8yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 85

Goodwood · Heineken Handicap · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 7f course handicap last summer. Ran well off a slipping mark when sixth of 18 in the Golden Mile at the Glorious meeting and enough in latest Haydock third to think he's still in form. Considered under Saffie Osborne.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ascot 06/09/2025 · Pos 18th of 20 · OR 94 · 7f Goo 132 · below its mark06/09/2025 · OR 94 par6/092OR 943 @ Thirsk 10/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 94 · 7f Gd 134 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 94 par2 @ Haydock 25/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 94 · 7f37y Goo 127 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 94 par25/042OR 943 @ Newmarket 16/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 93 · 7f Goo 134 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 93 par3 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 19 · OR 92 · 7f Goo 139 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 92 par13/063OR 923 @ York 27/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 90 · 7f192y Goo 142 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 90 par2 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 88 · 1m Goo 121 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 88 par31/072OR 882 @ Goodwood 29/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 87 · 7f GS 121 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 87 par3 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 85 · 6f212y Sft 135 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 85 par5/093OR 85projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Haydock33rd4th−1
2026-08-29Goodwood26th6th0
2026-07-31Goodwood26th6th0
2026-06-27York312th13th−1
2026-06-13York311th12th−1
2026-05-16Newmarket310th11th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0916/0531/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/09/202518th22/10%11%+0.11
10/04/20267th40/10%14%+0.14
25/04/20266th33/10%55%+0.55
16/05/202610th22/10%10%+0.10
13/06/202611th50/10%44%+0.44
27/06/202612th22/10%15%+0.15
31/07/20266th40/10%71%+0.71
29/08/20266th22/10%50%+0.50
05/09/20263rd14/126%80%+0.54