IvyArcIvyArc
2

Gun Carriage

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 96

Goodwood · Heineken Handicap · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won a maiden at Killarney for Aidan O'Brien last spring and having been gelded, showed useful form for current yard in the UAE over the winter. Off 6 months ahead of this first start in Britain.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength10%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Leopardstown 09/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 1m2f Gd 1349/04C8C8 @ Killarney 13/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 1m31y Gd 1341 @ Dundalk 26/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 92 · 1m2f150y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/09/2025 · OR 92 par26/091OR 92C0 @ Meydan 12/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 1m Fas 126C0 @ Meydan 09/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR - · 1m Fas 1369/01C?C0 @ Meydan 16/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR - · 1m3f Fas 133C0 @ Meydan 30/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR - · 1m Fas 12830/01C?C0 @ Meydan 13/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 1m Fas 13313/03C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-13Meydan?4th4th0
2026-01-30Meydan?4th4th0
2026-01-16Meydan?6th6th0
2026-01-09Meydan?11th11th0
2025-12-12Meydan?2nd2nd0
2025-09-26Dundalk110th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0412/1230/0113/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength2%

Delivery trend -4.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/04/20253rd14/126%78%+0.51
13/05/20251st11/1094%100%+0.06
26/09/202510th11/271%25%-0.46
12/12/20252nd15/261%90%+0.29
09/01/202611th2/189%33%-0.56
16/01/20266th11/486%67%-0.19
30/01/20264th10/147%80%+0.33
13/03/20264th11/486%63%-0.23