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4

Oliver Show

6yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 91

Goodwood · Heineken Handicap · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Losing run is mounting up but made the frame 3 times here this summer, including the Glorious meeting. Found his run of good form coming to a halt at Doncaster recently but his record here affords him respect.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.6
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newcastle 28/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 96 · 7f14y Std 135 · beat its mark28/09/2025 · OR 96 par28/092OR 962 @ Ascot 18/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 20 · OR 96 · 1m Gd 124 · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 96 par2 @ Doncaster 08/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 22 · OR 94 · 6f2y Hvy 130 · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 94 par8/112OR 94C0 @ Bahrain 02/01/2026 · Pos 15th of 18 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 1322 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 14th of 24 · OR 92 · 1m Goo 125 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 92 par18/042OR 923 @ Goodwood 22/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 90 · 7f Gd 135 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 90 par3 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 20 · OR 89 · 7f Goo 130 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 89 par29/073OR 893 @ Goodwood 30/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 89 · 1m Sft 136 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 89 par2 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 91 · 6f111y Gd 125 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 91 par13/092OR 91projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Doncaster27th7th0
2026-08-30Goodwood32nd3rd−1
2026-07-29Goodwood34th5th−1
2026-05-22Goodwood34th5th−1
2026-04-18Newbury214th14th0
2026-01-02Bahrain?15th15th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/092/0129/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength79%

Delivery trend -2.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/09/20257th13/266%45%-0.20
18/10/20259th22/10%58%+0.58
08/11/20255th12/137%81%+0.44
02/01/202615th9/153%18%-0.35
18/04/202614th20/10%43%+0.43
22/05/20264th5/174%77%+0.03
29/07/20264th6/168%84%+0.16
30/08/20262nd7/282%83%+0.02
13/09/20267th7/163%50%-0.13