6
Racingbreaks Ryder
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 86
Goodwood · Heineken Handicap · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Ripon | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Kempton | 4 | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-08-12 | Kempton | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Newcastle | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-06 | Chepstow | 4 | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2025-10-28 | Leicester | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength66%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 68% | +0.42 |
| 06/09/2025 | 14th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/10/2025 | 16th | 7/1 | 63% | 6% | -0.57 |
| 28/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 06/06/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 22% | -0.57 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 12/08/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 19/08/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 13% | -0.64 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |