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5

Storm Star

5yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 91

Goodwood · Heineken Handicap · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has recorded all 4 wins on all-weather at Newcastle but was a good second on turf at Ascot (1m, good to firm) in May. Creditable fifth of 17 in handicap at Doncaster (1m, good) 11 days ago. Eased another 2 lb and capable of a bold bid under Oisin Murphy.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.1
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newcastle 18/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 95 · 1m5y Std 125 · beat its mark18/04/2025 · OR 95 par18/042OR 952 @ Newcastle 13/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 100 · 7f14y Std 135 · beat its mark13/12/2025 · OR 100 par2 @ Newcastle 16/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 100 · 1m5y Std 137 · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 100 par16/012OR 1001 @ Southwell 07/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 99 · 1m13y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/02/2026 · OR 99 par2 @ Newcastle 03/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 98 · 1m5y Std 127 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 98 par3/042OR 983 @ Ascot 01/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 95 · 1m Goo 140 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 95 par2 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 28 · OR 96 · 7f GF 129 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 96 par18/062OR 963 @ Newmarket 14/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 95 · 1m GF 142 · below its mark14/08/2026 · OR 95 par2 @ Doncaster 12/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR 93 · 1m Goo 128 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 93 par12/092OR 93projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Doncaster25th5th0
2026-08-14Newmarket38th9th−1
2026-06-18Royal Ascot215th15th0
2026-05-01Ascot32nd3rd−1
2026-04-03Newcastle210th10th0
2026-02-07Southwell16th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/047/0218/0612/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/04/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
13/12/20253rd11/486%67%-0.19
16/01/20266th7/491%38%-0.53
07/02/20266th12/137%17%-0.20
03/04/202610th12/137%31%-0.06
01/05/20262nd12/137%90%+0.53
18/06/202615th33/10%48%+0.48
14/08/20268th11/271%22%-0.49
12/09/20265th28/10%75%+0.75