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Tribal Chief

5yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 92

Goodwood · Heineken Handicap · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

78%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Shaped well when third in Lincoln at Doncaster (1m, good) and Victoria Cup at Ascot (7f, good to firm) this spring but has ruined his chance with slow starts since. More than capable off this mark if breaking on terms but comes with obvious risks.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Goodwood 01/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 91 · 1m Sft 127 · beat its mark01/08/2025 · OR 91 par1/082OR 913 @ Goodwood 24/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 90 · 1m Goo 137 · beat its mark24/08/2025 · OR 90 par2 @ Newmarket 27/09/2025 · Pos 17th of 23 · OR 94 · 1m1f GF 123 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 94 par27/092OR 942 @ Ascot 18/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 20 · OR 94 · 1m Gd 122 · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 94 par2 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 21 · OR 93 · 1m Goo 127 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 93 par28/032OR 932 @ Ascot 09/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 28 · OR 93 · 7f Goo 128 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 93 par2 @ Sandown 04/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 93 · 1m Goo 121 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 93 par4/072OR 932 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 18 · OR 93 · 1m Goo 126 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 93 par2 @ Sandown 29/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 92 · 1m1f209y GS 130 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 92 par29/082OR 92projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Sandown26th6th0
2026-07-31Goodwood212th12th0
2026-07-04Sandown26th6th0
2026-05-09Ascot23rd3rd0
2026-03-28Doncaster23rd3rd0
2025-10-18Ascot27th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0818/104/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength81%

Delivery trend -3.3% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/08/20256th11/271%64%-0.07
24/08/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
27/09/202517th12/137%27%-0.10
18/10/20257th16/116%68%+0.53
28/03/20263rd14/126%90%+0.64
09/05/20263rd9/276%93%+0.16
04/07/20266th4/179%62%-0.17
31/07/202612th11/271%35%-0.36
29/08/20266th12/137%50%+0.13