1
Two Tempting
7yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 97
Goodwood · Heineken Handicap · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Kempton | 2 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Chester | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Goodwood | 2 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Wolverhampton | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Southwell | 1 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-01-01 | Southwell | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength62%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 19/11/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 11/12/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 01/01/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 07/02/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 31/07/2026 | 17th | 50/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 05/09/2026 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 31% | -0.30 |