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Boiling Point

5yo Horse · 9-7 · OR 111

Goodwood · Virgin Bet Foundation Stakes (Listed) · 1m 1f 197y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

98%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Defied top weight in the Cambridgeshire last September and edged out Naqeeb in a C&D listed race in May. Creditable efforts on next 3 starts and likely simply got bogged down on soft ground in the Celebration Mile here last time. Should go well despite his 3 lb penalty.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ York 23/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 105 · 1m177y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 105 par23/081OR 1052 @ Newmarket 27/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 23 · OR 109 · 1m1f GF 138 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 109 par1 @ Lingfield 21/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 114 · 1m2f Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 114 par21/021OR 1141 @ Newmarket 15/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 114 · 1m1f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 114 par1 @ Goodwood 22/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 113 · 1m1f197y Goo 129 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 113 par22/051OR 1131 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 113 · 1m113y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 113 par1 @ Sandown 03/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 112 · 1m1f209y Goo 138 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 112 par3/071OR 1122 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 112 · 1m1f11y Goo 138 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 112 par1 @ Goodwood 29/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 112 · 1m Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 112 par29/081OR 112projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Goodwood16th6th+0
2026-07-31Goodwood22nd3rd−1
2026-07-03Sandown14th4th0
2026-06-05Epsom Downs13rd3rd+0
2026-05-22Goodwood11st1st0
2026-04-15Newmarket13rd3rd+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0815/043/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength35%

Delivery trend -11.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/20252nd28/10%86%+0.86
27/09/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
21/02/20264th5/174%25%-0.49
15/04/20263rd5/287%60%-0.27
22/05/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
05/06/20263rd11/271%71%+0.00
03/07/20264th10/147%40%-0.07
31/07/20262nd10/382%83%+0.01
29/08/20266th9/276%17%-0.60