Naqeeb
6yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 109
Goodwood · Virgin Bet Foundation Stakes (Listed) · 1m 1f 197y
#2
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Goodwood | 1 | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ascot | 1 | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Goodwood | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Ascot | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-24 | Goodwood | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-22 | York | 2 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 12/07/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 59% | +0.22 |
| 29/07/2025 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 94% | +0.94 |
| 22/08/2025 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 22% | -0.49 |
| 24/09/2025 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |