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4

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4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 105

Goodwood · Virgin Bet Foundation Stakes (Listed) · 1m 1f 197y

#4

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Better than ever since switched to front-running tactics with wins over 1¼m at Chelmsford and Chester in the spring. Also very good second of 16 in handicap at Epsom (1¼m) in June and showed he can be competitive at listed level when 3¼ lengths fourth at Windsor (11.5f, good to soft) 25 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Doncaster 11/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 85 · 1m2f43y Goo 116 · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 85 par11/092OR 852 @ Newmarket 10/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 88 · 1m4f Goo 129 · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 88 par2 @ Lingfield 21/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 88 · 1m4f Std 126 · beat its mark21/02/2026 · OR 88 par21/022OR 883 @ Chelmsford City 12/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 88 · 1m2f Std 133 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 88 par2 @ Kempton 28/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 96 · 1m2f219y Sta 129 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 96 par28/032OR 962 @ Chester 08/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 96 · 1m2f70y Goo 131 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 96 par2 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 105 · 1m2f17y Goo 133 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 105 par5/062OR 1052 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 22 · OR 105 · 1m2f56y Goo 138 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 105 par1 @ Windsor 29/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 105 · 1m3f99y Sft 133 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 105 par29/081OR 105projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Windsor14th4th0
2026-07-11York29th10th−1
2026-06-05Epsom Downs22nd3rd−1
2026-05-08Chester21st2nd−1
2026-03-28Kempton23rd4th−1
2026-03-12Chelmsford City31st4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0912/035/0629/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/09/20253rd85/4089%78%-0.11
10/10/20255th5/287%64%-0.23
21/02/20262nd1/195%83%-0.11
12/03/20261st1/297%100%+0.03
28/03/20263rd9/488%83%-0.05
08/05/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
05/06/20262nd11/486%93%+0.08
11/07/20269th18/15%62%+0.57
29/08/20264th15/261%57%-0.03