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Eabha

2yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 97

Goodwood · British EBF 100,000 2YO Fillies' Series Final (EBF Restricted Race Series) (GBB Race) · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

97%

Place Prob

77%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Epsom 7f maiden/Newmarket nursery winner (good to firm) earlier this summer. Ran a cracker when second in Group 3 Prestige over C&D and not discredited with fourth of 11 to Musical TImes in May Hill Stakes at Doncaster (1m, good) 13 days ago. The form pick.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 2.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 01/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 6f110y GF 1281/0644 @ Chepstow 15/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 6f16y Goo 12815/0644 @ Epsom Downs 09/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 81 · 7f3y GF 128 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 81 par9/074OR 814 @ Newmarket 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 81 · 7f GF 131 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 81 par8/084OR 813 @ Newmarket 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 86 · 7f GF 135 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 86 par15/083OR 861 @ Goodwood 30/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 86 · 7f Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 86 par30/081OR 861 @ Doncaster 10/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 98 · 1m Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 98 par10/091OR 98projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Doncaster14th2nd+2
2026-08-30Goodwood12nd0th+1
2026-08-15Newmarket33rd4th−1
2026-08-08Newmarket41st3rd−2
2026-07-09Epsom Downs41st3rd−2
2026-06-15Chepstow43rd5th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/068/0810/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 15100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/06/20263rd18/15%82%+0.77
15/06/20263rd1/398%60%-0.38
09/07/20261st4/596%100%+0.04
08/08/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
15/08/20263rd1/297%50%-0.47
30/08/20262nd18/15%86%+0.80
10/09/20264th14/126%70%+0.44