11
Poppy Foxy
2yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 77
Goodwood · British EBF 100,000 2YO Fillies' Series Final (EBF Restricted Race Series) (GBB Race) · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-07 | Pontefract | 6 | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Salisbury | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Chester | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-31 | Nottingham | 5 | 6th | 10th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1521% of fieldRange 6-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength34%
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |