IvyArcIvyArc
3

Quebella

4yo Filly · 10-1 · OR 81

Goodwood · Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

All-weather novice winner as a 3-y-o who joined present connections for 70,000 gns and encouraging start when third over 1½m here in May. Lightly raced since, finding the steady tempo no use to her after 3 months off when fourth at Bath (11.6f) 3 weeks ago. Interesting up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 05/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m142y Std 1255/0455 @ Windsor 12/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 1m2f GF 1331 @ Goodwood 08/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 80 · 1m1f197y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/06/2025 · OR 80 par8/061OR 803 @ Southwell 13/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 87 · 1m3f23y Std 128 · beat its mark13/07/2025 · OR 87 par2 @ Goodwood 30/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 87 · 1m1f197y Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2025 · OR 87 par30/072OR 874 @ Newbury 19/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 86 · 1m4f Goo 136 · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 86 par3 @ Goodwood 22/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 85 · 1m3f218y Goo 137 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 85 par22/053OR 854 @ Chester 12/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 85 · 1m2f70y Sft 142 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ Bath 02/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 83 · 1m3f137y Gd 142 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 83 par2/094OR 83projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Bath44th5th−1
2026-06-12Chester43rd4th−1
2026-05-22Goodwood33rd3rd0
2025-09-19Newbury44th5th−1
2025-07-30Goodwood26th5th+1
2025-07-13Southwell33rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0413/0722/052/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength26%

Delivery trend -8.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/04/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
12/05/20252nd4/179%88%+0.09
08/06/20255th16/116%56%+0.40
13/07/20253rd9/276%80%+0.04
30/07/20256th8/158%62%+0.04
19/09/20254th7/282%57%-0.24
22/05/20263rd11/271%75%+0.04
12/06/20263rd5/493%60%-0.33
02/09/20264th2/189%40%-0.49