6
Em Four
4yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 78
Goodwood · Virgin Bet A Good Bet Handicap · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-24 | Brighton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Windsor | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Newmarket | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Sandown | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Chepstow | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1627% of fieldRange 7-17 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength16%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 21/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 21/05/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 20% | -0.72 |
| 12/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 04/07/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 31/08/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 33% | -0.57 |