14
Kesta
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 74
Goodwood · Virgin Bet A Good Bet Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength53%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Goodwood | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Goodwood | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Newmarket | 2 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2025-10-25 | Newbury | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Nottingham | 2 | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1647% of fieldRange 10-17 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 18/08/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 23/08/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.53 |
| 02/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 25/10/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 02/05/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/05/2026 | 11th | 6/1 | 68% | 23% | -0.45 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 29/07/2026 | 13th | 66/1 | 0% | 52% | +0.52 |