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Mister Bluebird

8yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 82

Goodwood · Virgin Bet A Good Bet Handicap · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#2

★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. Good second at Musselburgh and over 7f here in the spring but 3 lesser efforts have followed, beaten 8 lengths when third (Brosay second) of 7 over C&D (heavy) 15 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Chepstow 07/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 84 · 7f16y GS 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/08/2025 · OR 84 par7/082OR 842 @ Newcastle 21/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 85 · 7f14y Std 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 85 par2 @ Ascot 06/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 20 · OR 85 · 7f Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 85 par6/092OR 853 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 85 · 6f1y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 84 · 7f15y Goo 134 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 84 par26/044OR 843 @ Goodwood 22/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 85 · 7f Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 85 par2 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 86 · 7f3y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 86 par5/062OR 863 @ Sandown 29/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 85 · 7f GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ Goodwood 08/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 84 · 6f Sft 139 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 84 par8/094OR 84projClass-projected finish: 5th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Goodwood43rd3rd0
2026-08-29Sandown37th6th+1
2026-06-05Epsom Downs210th8th+2
2026-05-22Goodwood32nd1st+1
2026-04-26Musselburgh42nd2nd0
2026-03-27Newcastle312th11th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0827/035/068/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1673% of fieldRange 12-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength8%

Delivery trend -8.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/08/20252nd12/137%88%+0.51
21/08/20253rd33/10%85%+0.85
06/09/20258th22/10%63%+0.63
27/03/202612th33/10%15%+0.15
26/04/20262nd15/261%90%+0.29
22/05/20262nd8/158%92%+0.34
05/06/202610th12/137%40%+0.03
29/08/20267th40/10%14%+0.14
08/09/20263rd15/261%67%+0.06