7
On Edge
8yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 77
Goodwood · Virgin Bet A Good Bet Handicap · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Sandown | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Ffos Las | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Chepstow | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-20 | Bath | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-09-30 | Bath | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength61%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 86% | +0.30 |
| 22/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 22/09/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 92% | +0.37 |
| 30/09/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 20/10/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 13% | -0.64 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 14/08/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 11/09/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |