10
Rage Of Thunder
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 75
Goodwood · Virgin Bet A Good Bet Handicap · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kempton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Sandown | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Newbury | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Sandown | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Ascot | 4 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1640% of fieldRange 6-17 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength25%
Delivery trend -7.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 08/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 91% | +0.38 |
| 01/05/2026 | 15th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 09/05/2026 | 16th | 25/1 | 0% | 12% | +0.12 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 71% | -0.19 |
| 29/07/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |