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12

Robert Anstruther

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 75

Goodwood · Virgin Bet A Good Bet Handicap · 6f

#12

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Suited by the return to 6f, scoring readily at Nottingham (good to firm) in July. Good second of 10 at Newmarket (good to firm again) since. Nudged up another 2 lb.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Sandown 24/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 7f Gd 13324/0744 @ Kempton 20/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 7f Sta 1334 @ Newbury 19/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 74 · 7f Goo 124 · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 74 par19/094OR 745 @ Lingfield 27/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 71 · 7f1y Std 131 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Salisbury 23/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 70 · 6f213y Gd 132 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 70 par23/055OR 705 @ Sandown 12/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 69 · 7f Gd 129 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Windsor 29/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 67 · 6f12y GF 127 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 67 par29/065OR 675 @ Nottingham 17/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 66 · 6f18y Goo 131 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Newmarket 31/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 73 · 6f GF 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 73 par31/075OR 73projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Newmarket52nd3rd−1
2026-07-17Nottingham51st2nd−1
2026-06-29Windsor53rd4th−1
2026-06-12Sandown57th8th−1
2026-05-23Salisbury57th8th−1
2026-04-27Lingfield54th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0727/0429/0631/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1633% of fieldRange 3-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength56%

Delivery trend -4.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/07/20255th80/10%60%+0.60
20/08/20254th11/142%63%+0.20
19/09/20257th22/10%33%+0.33
27/04/20264th11/142%70%+0.28
23/05/20267th15/261%54%-0.07
12/06/20267th15/261%33%-0.27
29/06/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38
17/07/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
31/07/20262nd10/382%89%+0.06