11
Serenity Dream
5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 75
Goodwood · Virgin Bet A Good Bet Handicap · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Brighton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Brighton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Chepstow | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Kempton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Goodwood | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Ascot | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength65%
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/2026 | 6th | 5/4 | 93% | 17% | -0.77 |
| 01/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 13% | -0.66 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 76% | +0.50 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 06/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |