7
Circuit Duffy
6yo Gelding · 9-1
Happy Valley · Nam Fung Handicap · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 11.2 /10 (raw 9.3)
Highest class: BHA38
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Sha Tin | BHA38 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Sha Tin | BHA41 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-03 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Happy Valley | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength11%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 17/09/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 15/10/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 12/11/2025 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/12/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 01/01/2026 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 25/01/2026 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/02/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/04/2026 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |