11
Oriental Surprise
6yo Gelding · 8-7
Happy Valley · Nam Fung Handicap · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: BHA23
Recent avg: C2.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Sha Tin | BHA23 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength100%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/02/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 91% | +0.65 |
| 04/03/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 64% | -0.19 |
| 06/04/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.12 |
| 15/04/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 06/05/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 24/05/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 15% | -0.00 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 92% | +0.21 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 82% | +0.11 |