12
Perfect Pairing
7yo Gelding · 8-6
Happy Valley · Nam Fung Handicap · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class: BHA25
Recent avg: C3.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | BHA25 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA31 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength6%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/2026 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 15% | -0.32 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 82% | +0.77 |
| 25/03/2026 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 45% | -0.40 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 73% | -0.09 |
| 17/05/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 46% | -0.17 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 73% | +0.20 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 73% | -0.06 |
| 06/09/2026 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |