4
Red Brick Warrior
5yo Gelding · 9-5
Happy Valley · Nam Fung Handicap · 1m
#13
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Sha Tin | BHA44 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Sha Tin | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength80%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 11/01/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 08/02/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 22/02/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 54% | +0.38 |
| 25/03/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 73% | +0.67 |
| 15/04/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 45% | -0.20 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.58 |
| 01/07/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.12 |