3
Soaring Bronco
6yo Gelding · 9-6
Happy Valley · Nam Fung Handicap · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: BHA38
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | BHA38 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Sha Tin | BHA38 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sha Tin | BHA38 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-28 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2025 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 10% | -0.32 |
| 10/12/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 64% | +0.22 |
| 27/12/2025 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 15% | -0.00 |
| 28/01/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 18/03/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 90% | +0.14 |
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 85% | +0.03 |
| 06/09/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 69% | +0.22 |