13
Whowrotethatsong
5yo Gelding · 9-8
Happy Valley · Nam Fung Handicap · 1m
#14
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 9.0)
Highest class: BHA50
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Sha Tin | BHA50 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-01-28 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength41%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 28/01/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 01/03/2026 | 12th | 150/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 08/04/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 13/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 24/06/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 15/07/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |