11
Legend Star
5yo Gelding · 8-6
Happy Valley · Deep Water Bay Handicap · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 7.8)
Highest class: BHA37
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | BHA46 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 3-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength18%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2025 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 27% | -0.39 |
| 26/11/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 01/01/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 25/02/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 18/03/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 45% | -0.02 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 20/05/2026 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 06/09/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 16/09/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |