3
Looking Bright
5yo Gelding · 9-6
Happy Valley · Deep Water Bay Handicap · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: BHA56
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | BHA56 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA60 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Sha Tin | BHA62 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Sha Tin | BHA64 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Sha Tin | BHA64 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength28%
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/2025 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 02/11/2025 | 12th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 14/02/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 06/04/2026 | 8th | 2/1 | 89% | 36% | -0.53 |
| 09/05/2026 | 11th | 5/1 | 74% | 23% | -0.51 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 69% | -0.07 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |
| 13/09/2026 | 10th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |