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4

Matzden

5yo Gelding · 9-6

Happy Valley · Deep Water Bay Handicap · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: BHA56
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA64 @ Sha Tin 11/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 64 · 6f GF 121 · below its mark11/01/2026 · OR 64 par11/0164OR 64BHA64 @ Sha Tin 08/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 64 · 6f Gd 120 · beat its mark08/02/2026 · OR 64 parC0 @ Sha Tin 08/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 7f Gd 1198/03C?BHA62 @ Sha Tin 22/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 62 · 6f GF 117 · below its mark22/03/2026 · OR 62 parBHA60 @ Sha Tin 26/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 60 · 6f Gd 134 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 60 par26/0460OR 60BHA59 @ Sha Tin 09/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 59 · 6f Goo 134 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 59 parBHA59 @ Sha Tin 24/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 59 · 7f Gd 134 · beat its mark24/05/2026 · OR 59 par24/0559OR 59C0 @ Happy Valley 08/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 135BHA56 @ Sha Tin 06/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 56 · 6f GF 131 · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 56 par6/0956OR 56projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06Sha TinBHA562nd2nd0
2026-07-08Happy Valley?4th4th0
2026-05-24Sha TinBHA595th5th0
2026-05-09Sha TinBHA592nd2nd0
2026-04-26Sha TinBHA604th4th0
2026-03-22Sha TinBHA626th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0122/0324/056/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength99%

Delivery trend -0.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/01/20266th20/10%55%+0.55
08/02/20265th10/147%64%+0.16
08/03/202612th15/261%15%-0.45
22/03/20266th25/10%44%+0.44
26/04/20264th7/163%77%+0.14
09/05/20262nd5/287%91%+0.04
24/05/20265th9/153%69%+0.17
08/07/20264th12/137%73%+0.36
06/09/20262nd10/382%92%+0.10