5
Tourbillon Golfer
5yo Gelding · 9-4
Happy Valley · Deep Water Bay Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Sha Tin | BHA60 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 9-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/12/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 91% | +0.44 |
| 01/01/2026 | 11th | 9/2 | 76% | 23% | -0.53 |
| 28/01/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 82% | +0.13 |
| 11/02/2026 | 9th | 3/1 | 84% | 27% | -0.57 |
| 04/03/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 44% | -0.21 |
| 01/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 82% | -0.02 |
| 19/04/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 54% | -0.17 |
| 06/05/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 73% | -0.17 |
| 27/05/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 18% | -0.19 |