10
California Moxie
5yo Gelding · 9-5
Happy Valley · Wong Chuk Hang Handicap · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 3-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength39%
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 45% | -0.28 |
| 04/03/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 25/03/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 55% | -0.32 |
| 15/04/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 10% | -0.37 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 20/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 03/06/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 24/06/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 09/09/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |