12
Sure Joyful
8yo Gelding · 8-6
Happy Valley · Wong Chuk Hang Handicap · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength54%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 14/01/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 04/02/2026 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 36% | -0.19 |
| 25/02/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 04/03/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 82% | +0.66 |
| 20/05/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 18% | +0.02 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 08/07/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 18% | -0.24 |