4
Brownneedsfurther
5yo Gelding · 9-5
Happy Valley · Deep Water Bay Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
79%
Place Prob
65%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Sha Tin | BHA48 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Sha Tin | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Sha Tin | BHA48 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength74%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/12/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 45% | -0.18 |
| 27/12/2025 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 11/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 69% | +0.17 |
| 01/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 85% | +0.37 |
| 19/02/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 25/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 91% | +0.03 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 64% | -0.22 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 91% | +0.30 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |