12
Free Pony
6yo Gelding · 8-8
Happy Valley · Deep Water Bay Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 9-14 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength2%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/01/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 08/02/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 23% | +0.07 |
| 19/02/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 18/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 08/04/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 82% | +0.16 |
| 20/05/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.16 |
| 03/06/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 27% | -0.46 |
| 24/06/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 15/07/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |