10
Lucky Xander
5yo Gelding · 8-11
Happy Valley · Deep Water Bay Handicap · 6f
#12
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 11.8 /10 (raw 10.4)
Highest class: BHA56
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sha Tin | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Sha Tin | BHA56 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Sha Tin | BHA58 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Sha Tin | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Sha Tin | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 11-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 02/11/2025 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 03/12/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 27% | +0.01 |
| 27/12/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 04/01/2026 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/02/2026 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/02/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 08/03/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 22/04/2026 | 12th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |