11
Podium
9yo Gelding · 8-9
Happy Valley · Deep Water Bay Handicap · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: BHA32
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | BHA44 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | BHA38 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength91%
Delivery trend +6.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/01/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 36% | -0.35 |
| 11/02/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 73% | +0.20 |
| 08/03/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 08/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 06/09/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |