13
Fortune Star
5yo Gelding · 8-8
Happy Valley · The Hong Kong Country Club Challenge Cup (handicap) · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Sha Tin | BHA47 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA48 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength46%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/01/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 25/02/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 73% | -0.19 |
| 11/03/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 45% | -0.23 |
| 25/03/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 55% | -0.06 |
| 08/04/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 73% | +0.20 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 64% | -0.18 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 64% | -0.05 |
| 21/06/2026 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 12/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |