12
Gazeley
4yo Gelding · 8-5
Happy Valley · The Hong Kong Country Club Challenge Cup (handicap) · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 10.2 /10 (raw 9.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Sha Tin | BHA58 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength55%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 28/01/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 11/02/2026 | 12th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/03/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 22/04/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 13/05/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 03/06/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 24/06/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 15/07/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |