6
Happy Smile
4yo Gelding · 8-12
Happy Valley · The Hong Kong Country Club Challenge Cup (handicap) · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: BHA50
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA50 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength91%
Delivery trend -8.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 69% | +0.11 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 82% | +0.19 |