11
Healthy Pony
5yo Gelding · 8-6
Happy Valley · The Hong Kong Country Club Challenge Cup (handicap) · 1m
#13
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 11.0 /10 (raw 11.0)
Highest class: BHA48
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Sha Tin | BHA48 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sha Tin | BHA50 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 6-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength21%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2026 | 14th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/04/2026 | 11th | 150/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 03/05/2026 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 24/05/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 24/06/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |