3
Ivy League
7yo Gelding · 9-2
Happy Valley · The Hong Kong Country Club Challenge Cup (handicap) · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Sha Tin | BHA62 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-10 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-05 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 16/07/2025 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 22/10/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 05/11/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 64% | +0.03 |
| 10/12/2025 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 18% | -0.24 |
| 11/01/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 64% | +0.06 |
| 24/06/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 27% | +0.01 |
| 15/07/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 18% | -0.29 |