8
Luck Is Back
7yo Gelding · 8-11
Happy Valley · The Hong Kong Country Club Challenge Cup (handicap) · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 8.2)
Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | BHA40 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA51 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2025 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 17/12/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 11/01/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 06/05/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 20/05/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 21/06/2026 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/07/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 15/07/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 13/09/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |