14
Shamz
5yo Gelding · 9-9
Happy Valley · The Hong Kong Country Club Challenge Cup (handicap) · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 10.3)
Highest class: BHA55
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA55 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA57 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | BHA59 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Sha Tin | BHA61 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength46%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/2026 | 13th | 100/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 22/02/2026 | 9th | 100/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 08/03/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 22/03/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 26/04/2026 | 14th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 31/05/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 21/06/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 09/09/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |