4
Vermilion Tempest
5yo Gelding · 9-2
Happy Valley · The Hong Kong Country Club Challenge Cup (handicap) · 1m
#12
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 8.6)
Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA53 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Sha Tin | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength34%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2025 | 14th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/12/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 04/01/2026 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 21/01/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 23% | -0.03 |
| 18/03/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 08/04/2026 | 10th | 11/4 | 86% | 18% | -0.67 |
| 22/04/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 17/05/2026 | 11th | 3/1 | 84% | 23% | -0.61 |