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Viva Firecracker

5yo Gelding · 8-10

Happy Valley · The Hong Kong Country Club Challenge Cup (handicap) · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

84%

Place Prob

51%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA52 @ Sha Tin 20/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 52 · 5f Gd 127 · beat its mark20/12/2025 · OR 52 par20/1252OR 52C0 @ Sha Tin 04/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 7f Gd 125BHA48 @ Sha Tin 18/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 48 · 6f Gd 125 · beat its mark18/01/2026 · OR 48 par18/0148OR 48BHA46 @ Sha Tin 01/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 46 · 6f Gd 122 · beat its mark01/02/2026 · OR 46 parC0 @ Happy Valley 11/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 12211/03C?BHA44 @ Sha Tin 29/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 44 · 7f Gd 120 · beat its mark29/03/2026 · OR 44 parC0 @ Happy Valley 15/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 1m Gd 11715/04C?C0 @ Happy Valley 13/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 1m Gd 1184 @ Happy Valley 10/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 1m Gd 11510/064projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-10Happy Valley41st1st0
2026-05-13Happy Valley?6th6th0
2026-04-15Happy Valley?3rd3rd0
2026-03-29Sha TinBHA447th7th0
2026-03-11Happy Valley?5th5th0
2026-02-01Sha TinBHA464th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/121/0215/0410/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength62%

Delivery trend -6.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/12/20258th20/10%46%+0.46
04/01/20267th28/10%54%+0.54
18/01/20266th16/116%62%+0.46
01/02/20264th25/10%77%+0.77
11/03/20265th9/276%64%-0.13
29/03/20267th7/163%54%-0.09
15/04/20263rd14/126%82%+0.56
13/05/20266th7/282%55%-0.27
10/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21